The poll database.

Fieldwork precision

Exact dates

Population

New Zealand residents aged 18+ who are eligible and likely to vote; contactable by landline, mobile or online panel

Source classification

primary

Party-support sample

960

Survey methodology series

See source notes

Other components

womens-rights: 0.9%; vision-nz: 0.7%; new-conservatives: 0.3%; nz-loyal: 0.3%; te-tai-tokerau: 0.3%; free-palestine: 0.2%

Commissioner

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union

Reporting basis

decided voters

Undecided / non-response

2.5%

Would not vote

Not separately stated

Derived categories

No residual completion. Rounded totals normalised only in calculations.

Revision

1

Model comparison

No validated model snapshot for this date.

Public original release and same-day issuer newsletter confirm publication on 8 October. 700 phone and 300 online-panel respondents; weighted for gender, age and area. Reported decided base 960; 25 undecided and 15 refused the vote question. Refusals are not recorded as non-voters. Party shares are conditional on decided vote and round to 100.1%; preserve raw figures and normalise jointly for modelling. Other excludes Opportunity and contains the separately published minor-party components. No member-only report or publisher probability/seat claim is transcribed. Known before prospective registration: starting evidence, not an unseen validation poll.

Supporting fieldwork and results source

Fieldwork precision

Exact dates

Population

Eligible New Zealand voters

Source classification

primary

Party-support sample

Not separately available; model uses an exclusion-adjusted approximation

Survey methodology series

See source notes

Other components

See source notes

Commissioner

1News

Reporting basis

decided voters

Undecided / non-response

11.0%

Would not vote

Not separately stated

Derived categories

No residual completion. Rounded totals normalised only in calculations.

Revision

1

Model comparison

No validated model snapshot for this date.

501 mobile-phone and 500 online interviews. Weighted for age, gender, region, ethnicity and education. Published rounded shares total 100%; no separate minor-party detail transcribed.

Fieldwork precision

Exact dates

Population

Eligible New Zealand voters

Source classification

primary

Party-support sample

Not separately available; model uses an exclusion-adjusted approximation

Survey methodology series

See source notes

Other components

See source notes

Commissioner

RNZ

Reporting basis

decided voters

Undecided / non-response

3.0%

Would not vote

2.6%

Derived categories

Other is the residual of all reported named-party shares; see notes.

Revision

1

Model comparison

No validated model snapshot for this date.

RNZ reporter’s original report syndicated by The Spinoff. Quota sampling; weighted age, gender and geography. Excludes 3% undecided/don’t know and 2.6% would not vote. All seven named parties reported; their rounded total is 98.6%. The calculator/average derives a labelled 1.4% residual for unreported parties; it is not an observed Other result.

Fieldwork precision

Exact dates

Population

New Zealand-wide cross-section of electors

Source classification

primary

Party-support sample

Not separately available; model uses an exclusion-adjusted approximation

Survey methodology series

See source notes

Other components

See source notes

Commissioner

Not stated

Reporting basis

decided voters

Undecided / non-response

5.0%

Would not vote

Not separately stated

Derived categories

No residual completion. Rounded totals normalised only in calculations.

Revision

1

Model comparison

No validated model snapshot for this date.

Landline and mobile interviews. Other parties rounded to zero in the table; release describes less than 0.5%. Undecided means did not name a party.

Fieldwork precision

Exact dates

Population

Eligible New Zealand voters

Source classification

primary

Party-support sample

Not separately available; model uses an exclusion-adjusted approximation

Survey methodology series

See source notes

Other components

See source notes

Commissioner

1News

Reporting basis

decided voters

Undecided / non-response

13.0%

Would not vote

Not separately stated

Derived categories

Other is the residual of all reported named-party shares; see notes.

Revision

2 · Recovered the original 1News party-vote graphic linked by the September 28 article; Te Pāti Māori is displayed at 1%. Complete the named-party vector and explicitly derive the unreported-party residual.

Model comparison

No validated model snapshot for this date.

503 mobile-phone and 501 online interviews; eligible voters, weighted for age, gender, region, ethnicity and education. Original broadcaster graphic displays National 28, Labour 28, Green 16, ACT 11, NZ First 9, Opportunity 6 and Te Pāti Māori 1 percent. These displayed rounded figures total 99%; deriveOther explicitly supplies a 1% unreported-party residual, not an observed Other figure. The graphic reports combined undecided/refused at 13%. The detailed PDF remains behind a sign-in wall; its finer minor-party precision and decided respondent count are unverified. Do not infer a Te Tai Tokerau Party share from the residual.

Supporting fieldwork and results source

Fieldwork precision

Exact dates

Population

New Zealand-wide cross-section of electors

Source classification

primary

Party-support sample

Not separately available; model uses an exclusion-adjusted approximation

Survey methodology series

See source notes

Other components

See source notes

Commissioner

Not stated

Reporting basis

decided voters

Undecided / non-response

6.5%

Would not vote

Not separately stated

Derived categories

No residual completion. Rounded totals normalised only in calculations.

Revision

1

Model comparison

No validated model snapshot for this date.

Landline and mobile interviews. Published party shares are conditional on a named party. Other includes several minor parties.