Independent public-opinion data2026 election cycle / Public beta
CAMPAIGN GUIDE · NEW ZEALAND 2026

Compare the parties.

See the proposals, follow the funding and read the evidence.

7 parties67 selected policy summariesChecked

Proposals and forecasts are party claims. Our checks trace the sources and arithmetic; coalition agreements may change delivery.

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READ THE ORIGINALS

Sources you can follow.

Open a party to see the documents behind our selected summaries and funding checks.

National26 sources

Plan tables reviewed · 12 October fiscal schedule and selected original 2026 policy papers; forecast assumptions remain unverified.

National: fiscal plan released 12 October 2026 PDF p. 1: allowances; p. 2: operating schedule; p. 3: capital and tax assumptionsAll three pages and both tables visually checked. The paper allocates forecast allowances; it does not provide a revised whole-government cash/debt model or independent assurance.
National: 12 October fiscal-plan launch Dated 12 October 2026: $470m average, health share and forecast claims
National: Budget Responsibility Rules PDF pp. 1–3: fiscal rules and financing approach
National: no-new-taxes commitment General election commitment
National: International Visitor Levy Specific commitment to no increase for at least three years
National: visitor-levy reset (PDF) PDF p. 2: 1 July 2027 start and four-year operating costs
National: medicines and earlier care (PDF) PDF pp. 4–5: existing funding, aid offsets and cost table
National: original KiwiSaver policy paper PDF pp. 1–2: original costs, exceptions and uncertain tax receipts; pp. 3–4: family and over-65 contributions
National: paid parental leave paper PDF pp. 1–3: staged extension, costs and explained KiwiSaver top-up revision
National: student-loan policy paper PDF p. 3: valuation versus cash; pp. 4–5: collections and five-year net cost
National: welfare policy paper PDF pp. 2–3: eligibility and baseline costs; p. 4: net savings and model assumptions
National: First Home Loan expansion paper PDF p. 2: $4–6m within existing baselines; no clear fiscal period
National: Mill Road paper PDF p. 2: Stage One, route protection and additional NLTF costs
National: Belfast–Pegasus and Woodend paper PDF p. 2: $800m Budget allocation and additional NLTF costs
Treasury: PREFU 2026 Published 29 September 2026; printed pp. 8, 70, 101, 120, 130: baseline, risks, allowances and debt; PDF p. 50: transport
National: medicines and earlier care Policy page · Publication date not stated
National: First Home Loan access Policy page · Publication date not stated
National: 2026 education proposals Policy page · Publication date not stated
National: school-leaving proposal and exemptions Announcement · Published 11 Oct 2026
National: full education manifesto Policy paper · Publication date not stated
National: early childhood paper Policy paper · Publication date not stated
National: Home Energy Fund Policy page · Publication date not stated
National: home electrification policy (PDF) Policy paper · Publication date not stated
National: Keeping rates affordable Policy page · Publication date not stated
National: Small-business plan Policy page · Publication date not stated
National: full 47-point small-business paper Policy paper · Publication date not stated

How we check the guide.

Commitment and scope

We separate 2026 election commitments from current positions. Eligibility, dates and exclusions stay with each proposal.

Claims and checks

We trace figures to original tables and check their arithmetic. Party forecasts and assumptions are not independently validated by a matching sum.

Gaps stay visible

Missing details mean they were not specified or located in the reviewed sources. This is not proof that a policy or document does not exist.

What “Our assessment” means

OpinionScope’s editorial analysis considers clarity, who benefits or pays, funding, delivery and the evidence available. Potential benefits are not guaranteed outcomes. Each point links to its basis in the reviewed sources; the inference is ours.

We select the most material strengths, trade-offs and questions, without party scores or a required balance of positives and negatives. These are document-based assessments, not independent economic modelling.

Selected sources for the seven parties in our polling pages; not a list of every party standing in the election. Checked . The edition is manually reviewed and does not update automatically. Policy counts describe coverage, not ambition or quality. Coalition negotiations can change delivery.

Suggest a source or correction
Additional study: National’s website messaging

Social-media collection is paused. This separate, single-party website snapshot is retained with its evidence and limits.

CAMPAIGN MESSAGING

Proposals, criticism, or both?

A release can explain a policy and criticise an opponent. We record its main focus, then separately note whether it contains any opponent criticism.

WEBSITE RELEASES · PILOT

National’s week in words.

4–10 October 2026 · Pacific/Auckland

18 of 18archive-listed releases
reviewed as text

A snapshot of National’s Latest News archive . These figures describe website release text. They do not measure Facebook, Instagram or the party’s campaign as a whole.

What was the main focus?

Opponent criticism
8 of 18
Own proposals
7 of 18
Both central
1 of 18
Other / delivery updates
2 of 18
16 of 18 contain some opponent criticism.

That includes 7 of the 7 proposal-focused releases, often in a closing campaign contrast. 8 have criticism as their main focus. “Both central” means substantial attention to each.

Read all 18 releases and our labels

Headlines below are the party’s original wording. Our labels describe their focus and do not endorse the claims.

Own proposals

National’s plan for healthy fisheries

The release centres on fisheries commitments, including marine protection and enforcement. A closing paragraph criticises Labour and its potential coalition partners.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Own proposals

Securing water and fertiliser to back NZ farmers

Concrete water-storage and fertiliser commitments dominate. The final paragraph criticises the tax and spending approach attributed to a Labour coalition.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Other / delivery updates

Food and fibre exports hit record $65.2 billion

The release reports export results and credits existing government measures. It does not centre on a new election commitment or criticise an opposition party.

Contains opponent criticism: No
Opponent criticism

Labour missing major commitment from fiscal plan

The release questions funding in Labour’s fiscal plan, particularly redress for abuse survivors. Its closing National message is a general campaign contrast. These allegations are not independently verified here.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Own proposals

Firm, fair, affordable welfare

The five welfare commitments and how they would operate are the main focus. The text also criticises Labour’s welfare record and a potential coalition’s taxes.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Own proposals

Small business backed with 47-point Plan

Specific small-business proposals dominate, including compliance, employment support and dispute resolution. A later paragraph criticises Labour’s position on Investment Boost.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Opponent criticism

Labour to scrap game-changing education policy

The headline, opening and repeated argument challenge Labour’s education position. National’s existing reforms and commitment to retain daily learning hours support that contrast; criticism remains the dominant focus.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Opponent criticism

Labour’s fiscal plan unravelling

The release centres on an alleged correction and omissions in Labour’s fiscal plan. National’s own closing message is general. This label describes the messaging, not the accuracy of the allegations.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Opponent criticism

Another $2.2 billion hole in Labour’s fiscal plan

The text challenges Labour’s Investment Boost revenue assumptions. The attached image is excluded from this text-only review; the fiscal allegation is not adjudicated by this classification.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes · Attached image excluded from this text review
Own proposals

More medicines for Kiwis at home

Medicines funding, cancer screening and treatment commitments dominate. The release also criticises Labour’s previous Pharmac funding and a potential coalition’s tax approach.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Other / delivery updates

Regulation Ministry sets sites on building sector

This is an announcement of a current government regulatory review and its scope. It does not centre on an election commitment or criticism of an opposition party.

Contains opponent criticism: No
Opponent criticism

Labour’s transport plan has a $3.2 billion hole

The release disputes Labour’s transport funding assumptions and describes alleged consequences. A brief National economic slogan does not make its own proposals equally central.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Opponent criticism

Labour’s Fiscal Plan requires four zero Budgets

The main argument challenges the credibility and implications of Labour’s proposed budgets. National’s closing economic contrast is general. The classification does not verify the fiscal claims.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Both central

Labour all over the show on Woodend Bypass

Both messages are substantial: the release challenges Labour’s statements on Woodend and explains National’s project funding, preparation and construction commitment. This is a borderline editorial judgement, shown as both central.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Own proposals

Belfast to Pegasus & Woodend Bypass given green light

The release principally explains the Belfast–Pegasus and Woodend funding commitment and expected benefits. It also contrasts transport investment and criticises a Labour coalition’s tax plans.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Opponent criticism

Labour’s fiscal plan a fraud

The release’s main message alleges omissions and a lack of credibility in Labour’s fiscal plan. Its closing National slogan is general. This label is not a finding that the allegations are true.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
Own proposals

Mill Road Stage One given the green light

Mill Road construction, funding and route protection are the central commitments. The closing paragraph criticises the tax and spending approach attributed to a Labour coalition.

Contains opponent criticism: Yes
How to read this pilot
Own proposals
Concrete election commitments dominate. A critical aside does not change the main-focus label.
Opponent criticism
Challenges to an opponent’s policies, record or credibility dominate. A general party slogan does not make a release mixed.
Both central
Own commitments or delivery and opponent criticism each receive substantial attention.
Other / delivery updates
Results, government administration and other messages without a dominant new election proposal or opponent criticism.

We checked two consecutive unfiltered archive pages and crossed both date boundaries. Every unique release listed for this week was retrieved; each article’s date matched the archive. Text from the title and article body was reviewed. Images, attached documents, social posts, comments and ads are excluded. Separate releases count separately, even when their message repeats.

This is one editorial review, with a rationale for each label. It classifies messaging; it does not verify the truth of political allegations. Borderline labels may change after further review. The source pages can be edited or deleted, so this is coverage of the archive at capture time, not proof of every release ever published.

National is the first reviewed website collection. Other parties are not ranked or assigned zero counts. This fixed-week review is independent of the issue and search filters above.

Captured and reviewed (Pacific/Auckland). This edition does not update automatically. Suggest a correction.

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